This market will resolve to YES if: 
After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, 
the selected replacement has taken power, and
the individual selected identifies as female.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

Here's an interesting market: https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a

In the discussion, Gurkenglas said,

> Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right?

> TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes

> TheSkeward: I'd estimate that one around 10%, personally

> From the Discord in question, where TheSkeward is the current admin.

Yet at the same time, a whale keeps buying YES.

This question resolves to YES if the linked market drops lower than 15% before March 12th Eastern Time for at least 12 hours continuously. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Mar 4, 8:31pm: To clarify, TheSkeward is the current administrator.

Mar 4, 8:44pm: Ignore the previous clarification. It was redundant.

Mar 5, 10:34pm: If there's a dispute, we'll use the numbers from the API to settle this question. I will not round numbers. If the question's at 14.9% for 12 hours, that will count too.

town biden

Honourary

TheSkeward

Ben Rog-Wilhelm

Faul Sname

Zygohistomorphic

marthinwurer

blank

Rick

FlushedTable

I am the current administrator of this Discord server. I will choose the answer based on which user currently has the 'Administrator' role or has been officially announced as the successor, not based on the precise permission scheme - ie, if an administration bot had Administrator access, this would not factor into my choice, and if I still held the server owner status during a probationary period after I'd announced and handed the role over to another user, I would choose that user.

Judged by the size of pool, will this market have a total of M$ 20,000 invested in it by 11:59 pm EST on March 11th?

The market will stay open until March 11th. #meta #shortterm #fun

Feb 23, 10:28am: This market will not resolve until it closes. I'll resolve based on the pool size at close since that is simplest to determine. So if it is over or equal to $20,000 at close then the market will resolve to YES. If it is below $20,000 at close, then it will resolve to NO.

Close date updated to 2022-03-11 11:59 pm

Feb 23, 10:45am: @LeonardoTaglialegne Thanks!

To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).

There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. Will this year be at least as deadly as 2014? #RussiaUkraine #War

Mar 2, 2:19pm: Waiting for official confirmation to resolve

This resolves to "YES" if regular season games are cancelled due to the ongoing MLB lockout or related labor strife (e.g. the players go on strike).

See also https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10080/russian-border-closure-by-april-2022/ . I'll be roughly using their definition for border close: reputable news source reports significant e.g. >2% restriction, e.g. males of conscript age.

Prompted by Alexey Guzey's alarming warning: https://buttondown.email/guzey/archive/4-independent-sources-i-have-say-that-the-russian/

via Google Translate: "For the Russians, the exit will be blocked very soon. First, for men, some military age, then for everyone

Consider going straight to any open country (except Belarus). Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and the list goes on. Now there is still such an opportunity, but it will be blocked quickly and without warning.

If you want or consider it your duty to stay in the Russian Federation, this is your choice. But if you don’t want to live in this, you need to get out immediately, it’s better today

The position of the Russian Federation is much worse than in the Cold War. Complete hell can come suddenly and without warning. As for the economic collapse, it is guaranteed. I can bet on this quite confidently, because the sanctions steamroller has already set off. Western state apparatuses are more mechanistic, and therefore more subject to institutional inertia than the Russian one. It is difficult to move them from their place, but once moved, they go, go, go, and so on for a very long time. Because it is difficult not only to start them, but also to stop them, there is no person who could give such an order

If you want to leave, leave immediately, the sooner the better, to any open country except Belarus. It doesn’t make sense to ask the price for a long time which is better, the main thing is to cross the border, and then we’ll see. Kazakhstan and others are unlikely to block the exit, but the Russian Federation will. If you have not yet decided where and what to do next, you can go to Istanbul - this is the largest hub and from there they fly to almost all countries

As you cross, you can think about further actions. They understandably depend on your finances, skills, network and many related circumstances.

This is a recommendation that I can give to anyone who is thinking about leaving. As for more specific considerations, I'm not ready to make them public yet (subscribers can look here (https://www.patreon.com/posts/63248958)). But unlike all the other sealed texts, I will open this one as soon as I deem it possible.

For those who want to leave but do not know the situation on the ground - here is a list of Russian-language telegram chats in 105 countries of the world. You can read and if something is not clear, clarify the details with those who are already there https://telegra.ph/chat360-10-14"

Em of the Night

Austin

Merlaux

Don’t care about name; use “₥” as the symbol.

CompmanJX3

PeterBorah

Mr Stone

Luke W

Elena

Answer will be my favorite response of all responses above 25%.
Market will actually close at a random time between 3/14/2022 and 3/19/2022

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9993/europe-to-stop-buying-gas-from-russia/

This market resolves to YES if John Beshir is still in the top 20 users on the Manifold Markets leaderboard, sorted by total profits. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Mar 8, 8:57pm: I will check the leaderboard at the time indicated in the title of this question. If he drops from the leaderboard and gets back on it, it will still resolve to YES.

A market forevery prediction

A market for
every prediction